INDV (17.45 -1.37) lays an egg for its Q1 report. They missed eps expectations by 0.04, coming at an adj fd eps of 0.37. The year ago quarter was a tough comp in that they had their best margins of the year along with a lower tax rate. They cited several factors for the shortfall: 1) Medicaid disenrollment of approx 20MM patients (70% of their patient population is on Medicaid). This had already been going on prior to this quarter, but it accelerated unexpectedly; 2) A Cyber attack on a payment provider that cost them about 5-7MM from destocking impacts. They reiterated guidance for rev and operating profits for the year, and will be continuing to buy back stock. The guidance assumes that the quarter's numbers were an aberration, and that by Q3 they will have anniversaried the Medicaid disenrollment issue. They also hope to have a primary listing on the US by this summer, so no more 6K filings.
I took down my expectations for the year, but still think there is some decent upside here. It may languish in the 17s or even the 16s for a while, but I still think it could be hitting 52 week highs by year end IF they can get back on track in the 2H. My best guess for FD eps is 1.82 - 1.96, which is a healthy rise over last year's 1.57. FV is still likely in the high 20s, IMO so I'm not selling here.
